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Local weather change is, as anticipated, resulting in a rise in excessive climate, together with within the UK. The most recent State of the UK Local weather report, printed in July 2023 and offering a glance again at 2022, highlighted a 12 months of extremes. 2022 was proven to be the warmest 12 months within the UK collection from 1884, 0.9 °C above the 1991–2020 common, and included the primary time 40 °C was recorded within the UK. Earlier this month, we additionally introduced that 2023 was provisionally the second warmest 12 months on report for the UK. Data additionally present that the UK is getting wetter, and heavy rainfall exceeding 50mm has change into extra frequent within the autumn. A hotter, moister environment will increase the capability for deluges of rain, which may end up in severe flooding.
In recognition of this improve in extremes and a must proceed to enhance predictions of utmost climate and to evaluate its impacts, final 12 months we shaped a staff of specialists from throughout the Met Workplace to concentrate on the hyperlinks between local weather change and climate extremes. In the end this staff seeks to assist the general public, trade, enterprise, and native and nationwide authorities cope with excessive climate and stay secure and resilient in a altering local weather.
Trans-disciplinary experience
Because the UK’s nationwide climate service, forecasting the climate is the Met Workplace’s core enterprise, however combining this with world-leading local weather science from the Met Workplace Hadley Centre implies that we will present seamless scientific experience throughout climate and local weather timescales.
The brand new staff is co-ordinating and growing a trans-disciplinary method throughout the Met Workplace and our companions, with the staff itself bringing collectively completely different areas of experience. Headed up by Local weather Extremes Principal Fellow and Chief Meteorologist Paul Davies, the staff additionally contains specialists in local weather monitoring, climate and local weather extremes and the Met Workplace’s first Socio-Meteorologist.
Offering context for excessive climate
A key function of the brand new staff is to assist present the context round excessive climate. More and more, the general public, media, trade and authorities are asking questions on whether or not explicit climate developments or excessive climate occasions are as a consequence of local weather change or a part of the pure variability of UK climate. One of many key preliminary duties of the staff final 12 months was to collate the newest science on completely different climate extremes for the UK, serving to present colleagues with the proper data they wanted to reply a few of these questions. We’ll be exploring among the top-level findings of this work in one other weblog put up later this month.
Within the midst of a extreme climate occasion, we regularly get requested whether or not this has been brought on by local weather change. Our staff of specialists has been constructing on the excessive ranges of experience in attribution science from inside the Met Workplace, to assist present faster solutions to those questions with out transferring away from the scientific rigour of attribution research. You possibly can study extra about attributing excessive climate to local weather change on our web site.
Understanding impacts
In addition to bringing collectively the science of climate and local weather, understanding the impacts of utmost climate and local weather change is important to enhancing resilience. By means of a strategy of reviewing excessive occasions and contemplating the chance of unprecedented extremes, Paul Davies’ staff helps to deliver collectively data that can help all elements of society in getting ready for and adapting to excessive climate. We all know that excessive climate as a consequence of our altering local weather is already taking place and can proceed to occur within the years to return, so constructing resilience is important.
Lowering the influence of local weather change
Constructing resilience is one a part of the puzzle in how we will sort out local weather change, however adaptation must go hand in hand with mitigation. Deep and fast cuts to greenhouse gasoline emissions will assist cut back the chance of essentially the most extreme impacts of local weather change.
Motion is required throughout all ranges of society – to search out out extra about how one can make a distinction, check out our Get Local weather Prepared webpages.
Comply with the #GetClimateReady hashtag on X (previously Twitter) to study extra about climate and local weather extremes this month.
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