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From CFACT
David Wojick
This preposterous declare exhibits the damaging absurdity of the “loss and harm” doctrine. At this charge of injury the worldwide complete would run round TWO HUNDRED TRILLION DOLLARS A YEAR. There may be not that a lot cash in the entire world.
The $800 billion a 12 months is from a report introduced by Colombia at COP27. The mainstream inexperienced press both didn’t discover or determined to disregard it, lest it increase points greatest left alone till the proposed UN Loss and Harm Facility is created.
Take a look at it this fashion. Colombia is a comparatively small nation with a GDP of round $300 billion a 12 months, concerning the fortieth largest on the earth and simply 0.4% of the worldwide complete. Its “loss and harm” declare is roughly 2.5 occasions its GDP, so let’s assume that ratio globally.
World GDP is about $81 trillion, which multiplied by 2.5 equals simply over $200 trillion a 12 months.
Listed here are some giant growing nation examples, utilizing the two.5 occasions GDP estimate, rounded off. (GDP is from 2017)
Estimated “loss and damages” from human brought about local weather chaos:
India $6.6 trillion a 12 months
Brazil $5.1 trillion a 12 months
Mexico $2.9 trillion a 12 months
Indonesia $2.5 trillion a 12 months
Argentina $1.6 trillion a 12 months
Iran $1.1 trillion a 12 months
Clearly these numbers are absurd so far as reparations go. In fact they’re additionally absurd so far as human brought about local weather damages are involved, however that may be a very completely different concern, since they nicely may nonetheless be claimed. With regards to the UN, absurdity is not any impediment.
These huge numbers dwarf the current COP27 negotiations, the place the finance concern is perhaps upping complete monetary flows from $100 billion a 12 months to $1 trillion. None of that’s for so-called “loss and harm”, which is additional. Observe that even the $100 billion has by no means been paid.
Earlier than the “loss and harm” talks proceed we should always ask “What sort of cash are we speaking about?” As a result of there isn’t any level in speaking about paying the growing nations a whole bunch of trillions of {dollars}. It can not occur.
That no numbers have been included within the “reparations” laden information protection is important. Why this preposterous Colombian declare didn’t make headlines is itself a telling query. I discovered it buried because the third story in a publication from the Local weather Dwelling Information (CHN).
See https://mailchi.mp/climatehome/everybody-needs-good-neighbours?e=edd9ee2911
One would anticipate the massive inexperienced media just like the Washington Publish, New York Occasions, BBC, CNN and the Guardian to be throughout this story. I’m certain their local weather reporters all learn CHN. Nevertheless it may scare developed nations away from the desk, proper? And we simply bought them there, proper? Greatest be quiet.
In fact it’s doable that Colombia is simply an astronomical outlier. In different phrases a criminal. Possibly no different growing nation goes to give you absurd numbers like this. Nicely we should always actually wait and see.
In keeping with the CHN article, the Interamerican Growth Band is sponsoring related “loss and harm” analyses by Panama and Peru. We must always no less than wait till these numbers come out earlier than coming into into any negotiations. In any case, if their numbers are like Colombia’s then there’s nothing to barter.
As an apart, it might be that the banks love these large numbers as a result of they might get to deal with the motion. And relating to reparations, the extra the higher, proper?
Talking of nothing to barter, there have been a number of token contributions to a future UN “loss and harm” fund. I believe no less than Denmark, New Zealand and Scotland have every promised $10 million or so. In comparison with the astounding Colombian numbers that is as nothing, a tiny fraction of spherical off error, because it have been.
As a ultimate thought, how can a rustic constantly lose over twice its GDP every year and nonetheless survive? Certainly this can be a hoax.
No negotiation ought to proceed till the numbers are identified.
David Wojick, Ph.D. is an unbiased analyst working on the intersection of science, expertise and coverage. For origins see http://www.stemed.data/engineer_tackles_confusion.html For over 100 prior articles for CFACT see http://www.cfact.org/creator/david-wojick-ph-d/ Out there for confidential analysis and consulting.
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