The primary spherical of Turkey’s key presidential elections noticed a 3rd nationalist candidate and his alliance doubtlessly emerge as a figuring out power on the destiny of the run-off vote that takes place on Sunday.
Within the Could 14 polls, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan scored 49.5 p.c of the ballots, whereas the candidate of the principle opposition alliance, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, acquired 44.8 p.c.
The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who was a not acquainted determine to the Turkish public earlier than the polls, took 5.2 p.c within the election with the backing of the newly established ultranationalist ATA Alliance led by the Victory Occasion of Umit Ozdag, a seasoned far-right politician. The alliance secured 2.4 p.c of the votes within the Could 14 parliamentary election.
With such an end result, the nationalist nominee and the alliance emerged as attainable kingmakers within the aftermath of the primary spherical – till their latest fallout, that’s.
Analysts say a few of their votes got here from the backers of a fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, who withdrew from the race days earlier than the primary spherical, in addition to some youthful individuals who dislike each Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu.
Mesut Yegen, a professor of sociology at Istanbul’s Sehir College, mentioned there’s a voter bloc that desires to see neither major contender as president and is unimpressed with the mainstream political events in Turkey as we speak.
“Lots of them have secular sensitivities and, due to this fact, they’re towards the religion-based conservative politics Erdogan and his Individuals’s Alliance pursue,” Yegen informed Al Jazeera.
He added this group can also be disturbed by the pro-Kurdish Individuals’s Democratic Occasion’s help for Kilicdaroglu and cooperation between the 2 sides.
Ogan, an instructional of worldwide relations, entered parliament in 2011 with the Nationalist Motion Occasion (MHP) – the closest ally of Erdogan and his social gathering as we speak – earlier than launching an unsuccessful bid for its management in 2015, after which he was expelled.
He had been away from politics since then till he was named a presidential candidate by means of a deal he reached with Ozdag.
In the meantime, Ozdag, a professor of worldwide relations, is a former deputy chief of the MHP who later took the identical place within the IYI Occasion, which is in Kilicdaroglu’s alliance, earlier than being expelled and establishing the Victory Occasion in 2021.
The social gathering has grown public help utilizing ultranationalist rhetoric in a rustic hit laborious by its worst financial disaster in many years, and embracing anti-refugee sentiment quickly spreading amongst struggling Turks.
Ultranationalist platform
In accordance with Etyen Mahcupyan, a political analyst and author, Ogan was with out a important voter base earlier than the polls, and if he didn’t agree with Ozdag on his candidacy, the latter would have discovered one other contender to aspect with.
“The title of Ogan would possibly imply one thing solely to folks in slender nationalistic political and tutorial circles, however Ozdag and the Victory Occasion have truly established a voter base,” Mahcupyan informed Al Jazeera.
Ogan and Ozdag’s election marketing campaign platform was strongly against Erdogan and his Justice and Improvement Occasion (AK Occasion).
Their agenda revolved round a promise to ship hundreds of thousands of refugees within the nation again to their homelands and used harsh language in the direction of “terror” teams – in addition to, what they allege, are corruption and nepotism within the authorities.
Nonetheless, in an sudden twist on Could 22, Ogan endorsed Erdogan within the run-off vote, which led to the top of the ATA Alliance the identical day.
Ogan informed a televised information convention that “stability” performed a big function in making his determination, noting Erdogan’s alliance secured a parliamentary majority within the polls on Could 14. The politician didn’t reveal any attainable guarantees made by Erdogan for siding with him.
“It will be important for stability of the nation that almost all of the parliament and the president are from the identical alliance,” Ogan mentioned, asking individuals who voted for him to help the incumbent within the second spherical.
Ozdag disagreed and mentioned Ogan’s stance was his personal. Two days later, Ozdag threw his weight behind Kilicdaroglu in a joint press convention after the 2 politicians signed a memorandum of understanding.
The deal contains robust statements on the repatriation of refugees in Turkey inside a yr, the battle towards corruption, nepotism and “terror”, in addition to safety of the unitary nature of the Turkish state.
Totally different paths
Mahcupyan mentioned the ATA Alliance, which existed a mere two months, might have performed a key function within the vote however particular person agendas led to its downfall.
“Ogan seems like he thought of his personal particular person profession with out worrying about any future voter help whereas deciding, aiming to return to the MHP and proceed politics there. Maybe he sees himself as the subsequent chief of the social gathering,” he mentioned.
“Nonetheless, the Victory Occasion has grown its organisation and gathered a voter base as an opposition social gathering,” the analyst continued.
“Umit Ozdag has objectives for his social gathering and desires it to remain afloat after the polls so he has to face with the opposition, in the identical line the social gathering has established itself up till as we speak.”
The massive query a day earlier than the important thing vote is what impact this division within the potential “kingmaker” coalition may have on the result of the run-off.
Yegen mentioned the overwhelming majority of the Zafer Occasion voters will again Kilicdaroglu following the deal between himself and Ozdag, and after the principle opposition candidate adopted a stance interesting to them over the past two weeks.
He added the remainder of Ogan’s voters could reply in three other ways within the second spherical. “Some will lean in the direction of Erdogan, others will transfer within the path of Kilicdaroglu, whereas the remaining won’t go to the poll field,” mentioned Yegen.
Mahcupyan famous most of these voting for Ogan don’t have any emotional connection to him. “They voted for him as a result of they needed a 3rd path separate from the opposite two candidates,” he mentioned.