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PARIS: 5 months after america introduced the killing of al-Qaida’s chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan, the worldwide jihadist group has nonetheless not confirmed his loss of life or introduced a brand new boss.
In early August, US President Joe Biden mentioned US armed forces fired two missiles from a drone flying above the Afghan capital, hanging al-Zawahiri’s protected home and killing him.
However the group’s propaganda arms have continued to broadcast undated audio or video messages of the bearded Egyptian ideologue who led the group after US particular forces in 2011 killed its charismatic founder Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
“That is actually weird,” mentioned Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter-Extremism Venture suppose tank.
“A community solely works with a frontrunner. You want an individual round which every part coalesces.”
Nearly all choices stay open.
“It might after all be the case that america is improper about his loss of life,” researchers Raffaello Pantucci and Kabir Taneja wrote in early December on the Lawfare web site.
However “this would appear unlikely given the boldness with which President Biden publicly spoke in regards to the strike.”
One other risk is that the group has up to now did not make contact with Zawahiri’s most definitely successor, his former quantity two, who goes by the nom de guerre Saif al-Adl or “sword of justice”.
A former Egyptian particular forces lieutenant-colonel who turned to jihadism within the Eighties, he’s believed by observers to be in Iran.
The Islamic republic’s Shiite rulers formally oppose Sunni al-Qaida, however opponents have repeatedly accused Iran of cooperating with the community and giving sanctuary to its leaders.
For Schindler, Saif al-Adl “is a legal responsibility but in addition an asset for the Iranian regime”.
In accordance with its pursuits, Tehran might resolve at hand him over to america, or enable him to assault the West.
Al-Qaida can also be protecting quiet about Zawahiri’s demise beneath stress from the Taliban, Pantucci and Taneja recommended.
The group issued a rigorously worded assertion in August, neither confirming Zawahiri’s presence in Afghanistan nor acknowledging his loss of life.
“Their determination to not remark could possibly be a part of their efforts to handle their fragile however deep relationship with Al-Qaida, whereas additionally avoiding drawing consideration to the international terror group presence in direct contravention of their settlement with america,” they mentioned.
Saif al-Adl is also useless or in hiding to keep away from the destiny of his predecessor or the 2 final leaders of the community’s major rival, the Islamic State group, who had been additionally killed final yr.
Zawahiri didn’t attempt to emulate bin Laden’s charisma and affect after he took over the community however performed a key position in decentralising the group.
Al-Qaida is as we speak a far cry from the group that carried out the September 11, 2001 assaults towards america.
It now has autonomous franchises scattered throughout the Center East, Africa and Southeast Asia which might be far much less depending on central command than beforehand by way of operations, funding and technique.
Barak Mendelsohn, a US-based al-Qaida professional, mentioned it was laborious to inform why the group was taking time to announce a brand new chief, including that the delay was not “very consequential”.
“Finally the wait displays al-Qaida central’s restricted significance,” he mentioned.
“It is a image unifying teams throughout borders, however its operational relevance is low.”
Al-Qaida’s arch-enemy Islamic State has confronted related difficulties in filling its management since its “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself throughout a US raid in Syria in 2019.
After his two successors had been killed final yr, IS this autumn selected a relative unknown as its new chief, who claims heritage from the prophet’s Quraysh tribe to spice up his legitimacy.
Tore Hamming, a fellow on the Worldwide Centre for the Research of Radicalisation, mentioned it was not important for Al-Qaida to have a symbolic chief to talk in its title.
“We now have seen with the Islamic State (group) since 2019, it doesn’t essentially matter,” he mentioned.
IS elected new caliphs, however “nobody knew who they had been and by no means heard from them. But nonetheless associates remained loyal,” he defined.
“For al-Qaida it could possibly be the identical, simply with a council of senior figures enjoying the position of an amir,” or chief.
In early August, US President Joe Biden mentioned US armed forces fired two missiles from a drone flying above the Afghan capital, hanging al-Zawahiri’s protected home and killing him.
However the group’s propaganda arms have continued to broadcast undated audio or video messages of the bearded Egyptian ideologue who led the group after US particular forces in 2011 killed its charismatic founder Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
“That is actually weird,” mentioned Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter-Extremism Venture suppose tank.
“A community solely works with a frontrunner. You want an individual round which every part coalesces.”
Nearly all choices stay open.
“It might after all be the case that america is improper about his loss of life,” researchers Raffaello Pantucci and Kabir Taneja wrote in early December on the Lawfare web site.
However “this would appear unlikely given the boldness with which President Biden publicly spoke in regards to the strike.”
One other risk is that the group has up to now did not make contact with Zawahiri’s most definitely successor, his former quantity two, who goes by the nom de guerre Saif al-Adl or “sword of justice”.
A former Egyptian particular forces lieutenant-colonel who turned to jihadism within the Eighties, he’s believed by observers to be in Iran.
The Islamic republic’s Shiite rulers formally oppose Sunni al-Qaida, however opponents have repeatedly accused Iran of cooperating with the community and giving sanctuary to its leaders.
For Schindler, Saif al-Adl “is a legal responsibility but in addition an asset for the Iranian regime”.
In accordance with its pursuits, Tehran might resolve at hand him over to america, or enable him to assault the West.
Al-Qaida can also be protecting quiet about Zawahiri’s demise beneath stress from the Taliban, Pantucci and Taneja recommended.
The group issued a rigorously worded assertion in August, neither confirming Zawahiri’s presence in Afghanistan nor acknowledging his loss of life.
“Their determination to not remark could possibly be a part of their efforts to handle their fragile however deep relationship with Al-Qaida, whereas additionally avoiding drawing consideration to the international terror group presence in direct contravention of their settlement with america,” they mentioned.
Saif al-Adl is also useless or in hiding to keep away from the destiny of his predecessor or the 2 final leaders of the community’s major rival, the Islamic State group, who had been additionally killed final yr.
Zawahiri didn’t attempt to emulate bin Laden’s charisma and affect after he took over the community however performed a key position in decentralising the group.
Al-Qaida is as we speak a far cry from the group that carried out the September 11, 2001 assaults towards america.
It now has autonomous franchises scattered throughout the Center East, Africa and Southeast Asia which might be far much less depending on central command than beforehand by way of operations, funding and technique.
Barak Mendelsohn, a US-based al-Qaida professional, mentioned it was laborious to inform why the group was taking time to announce a brand new chief, including that the delay was not “very consequential”.
“Finally the wait displays al-Qaida central’s restricted significance,” he mentioned.
“It is a image unifying teams throughout borders, however its operational relevance is low.”
Al-Qaida’s arch-enemy Islamic State has confronted related difficulties in filling its management since its “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself throughout a US raid in Syria in 2019.
After his two successors had been killed final yr, IS this autumn selected a relative unknown as its new chief, who claims heritage from the prophet’s Quraysh tribe to spice up his legitimacy.
Tore Hamming, a fellow on the Worldwide Centre for the Research of Radicalisation, mentioned it was not important for Al-Qaida to have a symbolic chief to talk in its title.
“We now have seen with the Islamic State (group) since 2019, it doesn’t essentially matter,” he mentioned.
IS elected new caliphs, however “nobody knew who they had been and by no means heard from them. But nonetheless associates remained loyal,” he defined.
“For al-Qaida it could possibly be the identical, simply with a council of senior figures enjoying the position of an amir,” or chief.
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