Netflix, HBO, and Disney earnings present the streaming growth is over

Right here’s a typical streaming TV joke/criticism: There are such a lot of completely different providers that somebody ought to simply put all of them collectively, and you then’d simply pay one month-to-month charge for all the pieces. , identical to cable TV!

Ho ho ho.

The factor is, not one of the individuals operating streaming TV providers assume there are going to be a ton of TV providers sooner or later. They assume they may finally consolidate into just a few large gamers.

We’re already seeing a few of that, which is why Warner Brothers Discovery is on the brink of launch a yet-to-be-named service that can mash up HBO Max and Discovery Plus, which implies you’ll be capable of pay for White Lotus and Dr. Pimple Popper with one month-to-month invoice. Cautious what you would like for!

Within the meantime, for those who take a look at Wall Road earnings stories, you possibly can see fairly clearly why standard business knowledge is that the business goes to get smaller, no less than by way of suppliers: It’s actually, actually costly to run a streamer, particularly at the beginning.

And for those who don’t need to dig by public filings, don’t fear, we’ve finished it for you. Right here’s a fast snapshot of the cash Netflix made within the first 9 months of 2022, and the cash most of the would-be Netflixes misplaced:

There are some caveats right here, together with the truth that we’re utilizing barely completely different definitions of earnings and losses for every streamer as a result of they every use completely different ones of their filings. Add to that the truth that Warner Bros. Discovery’s complete is decrease than it must be as a result of we solely had two quarters of information out there for this chart.

However the large image is that there’s a ton of purple ink, and there can be a lot, far more if we 1) went again additional as a result of a few of these providers have been bleeding cash for a number of years and a couple of) may see the P&Ls of Apple and Amazon, that are burning large piles of cash on streaming however are so large that it doesn’t matter to them or their traders (for now).

This chart additionally explains why exhibits you like (however different individuals don’t) usually tend to disappear now than they’ve up to now: A few years in the past, Wall Road was telling media firms that they need to emulate Netflix and fear about progress, not losses. That modified final yr, for Netflix and for everybody else. Now, Netflix founder Reed Hastings preaches the deserves of working earnings, and his rivals are speaking about rationalizing prices.

Streaming isn’t going away. Knowledge agency Ampere Evaluation predicts world content material spending will hit $243 billion this yr. That’s a 2 p.c enhance, and it’s down fairly a bit from the 6 p.c progress we noticed in 2022. However it’s manner, manner up from the $128 billion we noticed a decade in the past. You’re nonetheless going to have lots of alternative for a very long time.