Bettors choosing Chicago Bears to upset Philadelphia Eagles

The Chicago Bears are coming off a bye week. That’s just about the one benefit they’ve over the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend. Nonetheless, regardless of the apparent disparity in expertise between the 2 squads, bettors appear inclined to succeed in for the celebs, simply as they did with the Texans over the Cowboys final weekend.

In line with OddsChecker US, 65 p.c of bets on the Eagles-Bears moneyline have gone in favor of Chicago. The Eagles come into Week 15 as nine-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, the second-largest unfold of any crew this week behind solely the Houston Texans (+14) in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. So, if I actually imagine that bettors are simply in search of an infinite payday, why wouldn’t they be backing the Houston Texans this week? Easy, they only watched the Texans lose them cash by failing to beat the Dallas Cowboys. Now, they get the Chiefs, arguably a harder opponent, and folks imagine they’ll’t probably win.

With the Bears, it’s completely different although. Chicago’s offense is scorching, and whereas Justin Fields’ impeccable play hasn’t amounted to a lot on the win column, it’s bought to be solely a matter of time earlier than they break by and are available out victorious. So, why not have it’s after a bye and in opposition to a crew a number of followers contemplate to be overrated?

I’m not saying that the Eagles are overrated. I feel they’re official Tremendous Bowl contenders, who, sure, have had a straightforward schedule, however they’ve dominated in these “simple” video games, simply as nice groups do. That mentioned, my perception isn’t shared amongst NFL followers in every single place. There are a number of folks with cash on the road who noticed Philly lose to the Commanders and barely beat the Inexperienced Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals who imagine the Eagles are extra fraudulent than Brett Favre’s subsequent huge public funding, and this might be the week that idea is confirmed, proper? Nicely, I doubt it.

Justin Fields’ biggest attribute is his mobility. Regardless of his extremely gifted arm, the Bears’ lack of robust receivers has inhibited Fields’ potential to alter video games by the air. That’s not saying he hasn’t — he’s regarded unimaginable when pressured to drop again and move — however it’s simpler for Fields to alter the momentum of video games on the bottom. The Eagles have allowed just one speeding landing to quarterbacks all 12 months, tied for the third-fewest within the NFL. That mentioned, the Eagles do enable a reasonably excessive 6.8 yards per rush from quarterbacks, however that quantity appears to have nearly no impact on a crew’s report. That 6.8 determine ranks Philadelphia lifeless final within the NFL…they’ve the perfect report within the league. The Detroit Lions have the next-worst mark (additionally 6.8 yards per try), they’re one of many hottest groups within the NFL, competing for a playoff spot, and regardless of permitting 147 yards and two touchdowns to Fields of their first assembly, the Lions nonetheless emerged victorious.

There’s something going the Bears’ manner although. The Eagles’ protection at the moment ranks second in complete yards allowed per sport, and whereas Fields and firm did beat the top-ranked protection — San Francisco — earlier within the season, that was Week 1, earlier than the Niners discovered their footing, and in arguably the worst climate situations both crew has performed in all 12 months. It’s exhausting to guage that sport on any foundation apart from as an outlier. That mentioned, Chicago has solely confronted two different top-10 defenses all season — Week 7 on the New England Patriots, the place the Bears put up their highest level complete of the season, and Week 12 in opposition to the Jets, the place Justin Fields didn’t play, which may also be considered as an outlier. In contrast to the Patriots, we are able to’t anticipate the Eagles to solely put up 14 factors although. In truth, Philly has only one sport this 12 months scoring fewer than 20.

The Eagles do additionally play the Cowboys subsequent week, which is undoubtedly their hardest remaining sport. Maybe Philadelphia will overlook the Bears, focusing an excessive amount of on Dallas, and lose sight of what’s straight in entrance of them, however the Eagles aren’t dumb. I doubt they’d be so short-sighted. They’re up two video games on the Cowboys, and I’m positive they’d gladly take a loss in opposition to Dallas as long as they beat Chicago. In that case, not less than the Eagles would nonetheless maintain a sport over Dallas for the division lead.

There are a number of different video games with lure traces in Week 15 that appear significantly better for betting the underdog too. Why are the Cowboys solely four-point favorites in opposition to the Jaguars? That appears slightly low. How concerning the Bengals being solely three-point favorites over Tampa Bay regardless of being simply two weeks faraway from taking down the Chiefs? Why are the Browns simply three-point favorites at dwelling in opposition to a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens crew? Vegas tends to know excess of the typical NFL shopper, and realizing unusual spreads like these is step one towards beating them. I’m not saying they’re all going to hit, simply to regulate all of them this weekend.

Certain, there’s some cause to place confidence in the Bears in opposition to the Eagles, however 9 factors is loads and there’s a cause Vegas has set the road at higher than one possession. Sure, generally they’re improper however in line with Professional-Soccer-Reference’s Win Chance Calculator, nine-point underdogs have only a 26.6 p.c probability of successful in the beginning of a sport — roughly a 1-in-4 probability. The percentages of a Bears’ win are simply plus 3.28-to-1, that means Vegas nonetheless holds the higher hand. I like Justin Fields too. Don’t let his greatness cloud your judgment although.